About modeled online conversions

Data is a key element of (digital) marketing. When we work with clients (especially European or US ones), we feel a reduction in the amount of data we can work with.

We often can't see 60-80% of data of our clients, mainly caused by the new regulatory law of 2018. This makes our work more difficult, because we make decisions primarily on the basis of these - now drastically reduced - data. And that's the reason why we use modeled conversions.

Modeled conversions use data that doesn't identify individual users to estimate conversions that Google is unable to observe directly. This can offer a more complete report of your conversions.

We model to recover slices of data where we know we can't observe ad attribution due to protecting user privacy or technical limitations. We do this to provide high quality measurement so you accurately understand the impact of your marketing and maintain high quality bidding to prevent underbidding or overbidding.

When Google surfaces modeled conversions in Google Ads, we're predicting attributed conversions. In most cases, Google will receive ad interactions and online conversions, but is missing the linkage between the two. Our modeling determines whether a Google ad interaction led to the online conversion. It doesn't determine whether or not a conversion happened.

Without modeling, reported conversions would only reflect the observable portion of conversions rather than the true campaign performance.

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How modeled online conversions work

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Example: Let’s say you have a slice of conversions that aren't observable on one browser type, but can be observed on other browser types. Our modeling will first understand the trends between users' behaviour (for example, conversion rates) across browser types.

Google ads then use our observable data from measurable browsers, together with any systematic biases, and incorporate other aggregate dimensions like device type, time of day, geographic location, operating system, and more, to predict the likelihood of conversion events from ad interactions on the unobservable browser type.

Modeled conversions are reported with the same granularity as observed conversions. This includes dimensions such as conversion totals, attribution path, and conversion values. In the “Conversions” column, Google reports both modeled and observed conversions.

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Benefits of modeled online conversions

Holistic measurement across all your ads traffic: Gain a more accurate picture of your advertising outcomes (ROI), and a complete picture of the conversion path across devices and channels resulting from ad interactions.
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Efficient campaign optimization: Modeled conversions help you optimize your campaigns more effectively and achieve better business results.

Accurate privacy-centric measurement: Modeled conversions use data that doesn't identify individual users to estimate conversions that Google is unable to observe directly.

"Accurate measurement is the essential foundation upon which your ongoing learnings, decisions, and optimisations are built."

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We’re in the midst of a measurement evolution, and global ecosystem changes are challenging marketers to be forward thinking and privacy focused. This is an opportunity to double down on the power of data-driven marketing so you can continue to capture a complete and accurate view of your business performance, now and tomorrow.

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